Fargo Rating Chart: Win Odds by Rating Difference
FargoRate is built on one simple rule: a 100-point rating gap means the stronger player wins about two games for every one the weaker player wins. From that rule you can work out how often the better player wins a game, a race to 5 or a race to 9. Here are the numbers.
Win chances by rating difference
"Gap" is the higher rating minus the lower rating. Percentages are the stronger player's chance to win, in even races with no handicap.
| Gap | One game | Race to 5 | Race to 7 | Race to 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| 25 | 54% | 61% | 62% | 64% |
| 50 | 59% | 70% | 74% | 77% |
| 75 | 63% | 79% | 83% | 86% |
| 100 | 67% | 86% | 90% | 92% |
| 125 | 70% | 91% | 94% | 96% |
| 150 | 74% | 94% | 97% | 98% |
| 200 | 80% | 98% | 99% | >99% |
| 250 | 85% | 99% | >99% | >99% |
| 300 | 89% | >99% | >99% | >99% |
Notice how fast the odds grow in longer races. A 100-point favorite wins two out of three single games, but most of the time over a race to 9. That is why short races are kinder to underdogs, and why handicapped events give the weaker player fewer games to win.
Fair handicap races
To make a match roughly even, the stronger player has to win more games. These are the races that come closest to 50/50 for each rating gap, given how many games the lower-rated player needs.
| Gap | Lower player to 3 | Lower player to 4 | Lower player to 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 4 to 3 | 5 to 4 | 6 to 5 |
| 50 | 4 to 3 | 6 to 4 | 7 to 5 |
| 75 | 5 to 3 | 7 to 4 | 8 to 5 |
| 100 | 6 to 3 | 8 to 4 | 10 to 5 |
| 125 | 7 to 3 | 9 to 4 | 11 to 5 |
| 150 | 8 to 3 | 11 to 4 | 14 to 5 |
| 200 | 11 to 3 | 15 to 4 | 19 to 5 |
Read "6 to 3" as: the stronger player races to 6, the weaker player races to 3. For any two exact ratings, use the Fargo race calculator.
What do Fargo ratings mean?
These are rough descriptions that many players use. A rating only measures results, so treat them as a guide, not a label.
- Below 400: newer players still learning to make balls and avoid scratches.
- 400 to 500: typical league players who can run a few balls and play some safeties.
- 500 to 600: strong league players who can run out an open 8-ball rack.
- 600 to 700: top local players, regular winners at weekly tournaments.
- 700 to 750: regional stars who contend at bigger events.
- Above 750: touring professionals; the very best in the world are around 800 and up.
Why the chart is only a starting point
- Ratings move. A rating is based on past games, and newer players' ratings carry less certainty.
- The game matters. Some players are much stronger at 8-Ball than 9-Ball, or on a bar box than a 9-foot table.
- Breaks and formats matter. Winner breaks favor the stronger player more than alternate breaks.
More on how handicaps work in our Fargo and handicaps guide. FargoRate is a trademark of its owners; this chart is independent and not affiliated with FargoRate.